90% of startups fail

Then build 10 startups?

• P(all fail) = 0.9¹⁰ = 0.35
• P(at least one succeeds) = 1 - 0.35 = 0.65

65% chance of winning.

Jk it's actually 97%

The 65% assumes each attempt has the same 10% chance of success.

In reality, provided you are reasonably intelligent and reflective, with each startup attempt:

• Your skills sharpen
• Your network expands
• You learn from mistakes
• Your taste / opportunity radar improves
• Your execution speed increases
• Etc.

Maybe the win rate progression looks more like:

Startup #	Success Probability	Explanation
1	5%	Dumb mistakes
2	8%	More dumb mistakes
3	12%	Even more dumb mistakes
4	18%	You still suck
5	25%	You suck a little less
6	32%	Things starting to click
7	40%	++skills
8	48%	++skills
9	55%	++skills
10	60%	Mastery

P(at least one success) = 1 - (0.95 × 0.92 × 0.88 × 0.82 × 0.75 × 0.68 × 0.6 × 0.52 × 0.45 × 0.4)

P(at least one success) = 1 - 0.0296

P(at least one success) = 97%

Should you build 10 startups?

Idk, but if you do, send me an email in 20 year and let me know how it went.