90% of startups fail
Then build 10 startups?
- P(all fail) = 0.9¹⁰ = 0.35
- P(at least one succeeds) = 1 - 0.35 = 0.65
65% chance of winning.
Jk it's actually 97%
The 65% assumes each attempt has the same 10% chance of success.
In reality, provided you are reasonably intelligent and reflective, with each startup attempt:
- Your skills sharpen
- Your network expands
- You learn from mistakes
- Your taste / opportunity radar improves
- Your execution speed increases
- Etc.
Maybe the win rate progression looks more like:
| Startup # | Success Probability | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5% | Dumb mistakes |
| 2 | 8% | More dumb mistakes |
| 3 | 12% | Even more dumb mistakes |
| 4 | 18% | You still suck |
| 5 | 25% | You suck a little less |
| 6 | 32% | Things starting to click |
| 7 | 40% | ++skills |
| 8 | 48% | ++skills |
| 9 | 55% | ++skills |
| 10 | 60% | Mastery |
P(at least one success) = 1 - (0.95 × 0.92 × 0.88 × 0.82 × 0.75 × 0.68 × 0.6 × 0.52 × 0.45 × 0.4)
P(at least one success) = 1 - 0.0296
P(at least one success) = 97%
Should you build 10 startups?
Idk but if you do, send me an email in 20 years and let me know how it went.